Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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Big Picture through the week and into next weekend:

• More rain and snow for Oregon and northern California mid-week.
• The week’s significant storm develops Wednesday over the Southern Plains
  • Snow to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
  • Rain showers and thunderstorms the the chance for some severe weather embedded, from Wednesday through Saturday. This area spreads east and south throughout the week, starting over the Southern Plains and ending up across the East Coast and Southeast.
  • Heavy rains over northern Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
• The big unknowns for this week:
  • Will there be a major west coast storm this coming weekend? More likely than not, but far from a sure thing. If this storm does comes in it will be much warmer than the past storms, with a high snow level. If this storm comes to pass, there will be lots of rain on a near-record snowpack … watch out for flooding.
  • How quickly does the mid-week storm move off the East Coast? Is it a (mal)lingerer – or does it know when it’s time to leave the party?
  • Snow to Pennsylvania, New York and southern New England next week?
    • The history of this winter would lead me to bet against it, at least south of I-90.
• Temperatures:
  • Warmer than normal along much of the Gulf Coast and Florida through Thursday
  • By next weekend, most of the country will be at or below normal.
    • Especially cool for the western High Plains, the Midwest, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
• Precipitation:
  • Wetter than normal for central and northern California, Oregon and the Great Basin, as well as the Northern and Southern Plains.
  • Drier than normal for southern California and the Southwest. Also drier for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Outlook for the 2nd half of March (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Generally below normal temperatures for most of the country.
  • If this comes to pass, it should dampen (although not eliminate) some of the typical March severe weather.
• The West Coast dries out.
  • Upper Midwest and northern New England also drier than normal.
• Leaning towards wetter than normal for the East.
• Wet and probably snowy out west. Wetter than normal south of I-40 and west of I-35.