Travel and RV Weather Extended Outlook through Sunday 21 May

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for this coming week and next weekend:

  • High Pressure ridge over the West builds to the east and north, limiting any organized storm activity this period over much of the Country.
  • It could be a rainy Sunday for the Northeast next weekend.
  • Expect limited severe weather activity Thursday through Saturday.
  • No significant snowfall in the forecast – for this period and for the foreseeable future.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

  • Warmer than normal temperatures persist in the West and the Pacific Northwest.
  • Warmer than normal temperatures expected over the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains and southern Florida.
  • Cooler than normal over Texas, the Southern Plains and most of the Country east of I-55 (New Orleans to Chicago).
  • Wetter than normal in the Southwest and Southeast.
  • Drier than normal north of I-70 and over California and the Pacific Northwest.

Highlights by day (16 – 21 May):

  1. Tuesday
    • Windy over the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, respectively.
    • Marginal severe weather conditions expected for the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians.
    • Windy over western Kentucky.
    • Rain, some heavy, over the Ohio Valley, West Virginia, and northern Virginia.
  2. Wednesday:
    • Afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the Southeast, the Rockies and the western Plains.
  3. Thursday:
    • Afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the Southeast and the Rockies.
    • Frontal system crosses the Upper Midwest, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms into the Central Plains.
  4. Friday:
    • Afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies.
    • Showers and some thunderstorms from Michigan to the Texas Panhandle.
  5. Saturday:
    • Rain and showers for the Midwest, Mid-south, lower Mississippi Valley, and across Texas.
  6. Sunday:
    • Rain, possibly heavy, for New York and New England.
    • Showers and thunderstorms along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

More Highlights (from the National Weather Service):

  • Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook

Outlook for the latter part of May and into early June (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

  • By the end of May:
    • Warmer than normal north of I-80 and west of I-25.
    • Cool over Texas and the Southeast.
    • Drier than average over the Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest and Midwest, and the Great Plains.
    • Wetter than normal over the Southeast Atlantic Coast and the Florida Peninsula.
  • Through the first week of June:
    • Warmth in the Pacific Northwest persists.
    • Cooler than average over Texas.
Total precipitation amounts through Sunday 21 May
Expected precipitation amounts as a percentage of normal through Sunday 21May
Averaged temperature departures from normal through Sunday 21 May
Total snowfall accumulation through Sunday 21 May

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