Planning to travel this week? Here’s what could impact your route.
- Southwest Flash Flood Threat Today: Fooding threatens much of Utah and northern Arizona, with life-threatening flooding already underway in southern Utah.
- Severe Storms Target the Central Plains Tuesday: Large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes threaten Kansas, Oklahoma and surrounding states.
- Widespread Dense Fog Disrupts Morning Travel: Visibility drops to a quarter-mile or less across parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
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Significant travel weather for the next 2-3 days.
Weather Impacts Pacific:
— A small portion of eastern Washington, a small portion of northeastern and north-central Oregon, and a small portion of the Idaho Panhandle: Freeze Watches cover the broader region tonight through Tuesday morning, with lows near 29 to 30 in many areas and as low as 23 in northeastern Oregon’s Grande Ronde Valley.
— Southwestern Nevada, a portion of south-central Nevada and a small portion of California’s Eastern Sierra: Freeze Watches are in effect late tonight through Tuesday morning, with subfreezing temperatures as low as 30 possible in northern Owens Valley and the Nevada watch area.
— Southeastern Nevada: A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall highlights a flash-flood threat today. Routes potentially affected: I-15, US-6, US-50, US-93.
— A small portion of California’s Central Coast and a small portion of the Bay Area: Coastal Flood Advisories cover low-lying shores and tidal waterways. Minor to moderate flooding and 8- to 12-foot breaking waves affect part of the Central Coast through tonight; Bay Area and Monterey Bay locations may see up to 1.5 feet of inundation through Tuesday, with the San Pablo Bay area continuing through Wednesday and breaking waves up to 16 feet along parts of the open coast.
— A small portion of Southern California, including the Malibu Coast and other coastal areas: Coastal Flood Advisories continue through Tuesday afternoon. Morning high tides of roughly 6.5 to 7.3 feet will produce minor to moderate flooding of low-lying lots, parks, harbors and roads, with isolated road closures; elevated surf and strong rip currents also continue.
Weather Impacts Mountain:
— A portion of central, south-central and southeastern Idaho: A Flood Watch continues through this afternoon as prolonged rainfall may flood rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying locations. Routes potentially affected: I-15, I-84, I-86, US-20, US-26, US-93.
— A portion of north-central Montana and small portions of central and northeastern Montana: Winter Weather Advisories continue through late morning or midday. Wet snow will add up to 1 inch in part of north-central Montana and up to 2 inches elsewhere in the advisory area, leaving slippery roads. Routes potentially affected: US-2, US-87, US-191.
— A small portion of south-central Utah, including the Paria River and Paria Canyon: A FLASH FLOOD WARNING is in effect until 11 AM MDT. Gauge reports show life-threatening flash flooding already occurring along the Paria River near US-89, affecting streams, roads, streets and underpasses. Routes potentially affected: US-89.
—Southern, central and east-central Utah: A Flood Watch continues through this afternoon. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in rivers, dry washes, slot canyons, slickrock areas and recent burn scars. Routes potentially affected: I-15, I-70, US-6, US-40, US-50, US-89, US-191.
— Northern, west-central and central Utah: A Flood Watch continues through this afternoon. Prolonged rainfall may produce river, creek, street and poor-drainage flooding, with locally heavier totals near the northern frontal zone and recent burn scars. Routes potentially affected: I-15, I-80, I-84, US-6, US-40, US-50, US-89, US-191.
— Central Utah, portions of western and east-central Utah, and western, north-central and central Arizona: A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall highlights additional flash-flood concerns today. Routes potentially affected: I-15, I-17, I-40, I-70, I-80, I-84.
— A small portion of southwestern Nebraska, a small portion of northeastern Colorado and a portion of east-central Colorado, and a small portion of northwestern Kansas: West-southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph and afternoon humidity of 10 to 15 percent will overlap for one to two hours, allowing grass or crop fires to spread quickly if they develop. Routes potentially affected: I-70, US-24, US-34, US-36, US-385.
— A portion of northern, central and east-central Arizona, including the Grand Canyon region and Mogollon Rim: A Flood Watch continues through this afternoon. Embedded heavy rain may produce flash flooding in creeks, dry washes, low-water crossings, narrow canyons and recently burned areas. Routes potentially affected: I-17, I-40, US-60, US-89, US-89A, US-93, US-180.
— A portion of eastern New Mexico: A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place Wednesday afternoon and evening, with isolated severe storms possible. Routes potentially affected: I-40, US-54, US-60, US-62, US-70, US-82, US-84, US-380.
Weather Impacts Central:
— Northeastern and east-central South Dakota and a small portion of southwestern Minnesota: Dense Fog Advisories cover much of the area this morning, with visibility of one-quarter mile or less. Most southwestern Minnesota locations improve by 10 AM CDT, while fog may persist until 1 PM in northeastern South Dakota and a smaller South Dakota-Minnesota area. Routes potentially affected: I-29, US-12, US-14, US-59, US-71, US-81, US-212.
— A portion of southeastern South Dakota and small portions of east-central and south-central South Dakota: A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 10 AM CDT, with visibility dropping to one-quarter mile or less at times. Routes potentially affected: I-90, US-18, US-281.
— Northwestern, north-central and a portion of west-central Nebraska, including the Sandhills: Patchy dense fog continues through midmorning, with brief visibility near one-quarter mile and rapid changes over short distances. Routes potentially affected: US-20, US-83, US-281.
— Much of Kansas; western Oklahoma main body and the Oklahoma Panhandle; western Texas; southern and east-central Iowa; northern, west-central and a portion of central Missouri; and western, north-central and a portion of central Illinois: Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon into night, with large hail and damaging winds and a conditional tornado threat. The greatest risk is confined to parts of Kansas, far northwestern Missouri, central and western Oklahoma and far northern Texas; more isolated severe weather may extend across the rest of the outlined region. Routes potentially affected: I-10, I-20, I-29, I-35, I-40, I-55, I-70, I-74, I-80.
— Southeastern, east-central and south-central Kansas; most of Oklahoma; western Texas; west-central, southwestern and a small portion of south-central Missouri; and northwestern and west-central Arkansas: A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms covers the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, with isolated severe storms possible. Routes potentially affected: I-10, I-20, I-27, I-35, I-40, I-44, I-49.
— Southeastern, east-central and south-central Kansas; much of Oklahoma; western and a portion of northern Texas; and western, central and a portion of south-central Missouri: A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall highlights a flash-flood threat Wednesday. Routes potentially affected: I-10, I-20, I-27, I-29, I-35, I-40, I-44, I-49, I-70.
— A small portion of South Texas and a small portion of East Texas along the coast: A Coastal Flood Advisory continues until 1 AM CDT Tuesday, with minor flooding of low-lying lots, parks and roads and isolated road closures.
— Small portions of northwestern, north-central and southwestern Kentucky and portions of southeastern and southwestern Indiana: A Dense Fog Advisory continues through 10 AM CDT or 11 AM EDT, with visibility of one-quarter to one-half mile. Routes potentially affected: I-64, I-65, I-71, US-31, US-31E, US-60, US-68, US-421.
— A portion of western Kentucky and a small portion of southwestern Indiana: Observed fog may reduce visibility to one-quarter mile through daybreak, then improve quickly after sunrise. Routes potentially affected: I-24, I-64, I-69, US-60, US-68.
— Small portions of northeastern, south-central and southeastern Tennessee and portions of northeastern and north-central Alabama: A Dense Fog Advisory covers north-central and northeastern Alabama and part of south-central Tennessee until 10 AM CDT, with visibility of one-quarter mile or less. Elsewhere in the Tennessee footprint, sheltered valleys may also fall below one-quarter mile before improving after sunrise. Routes potentially affected: I-24, I-59, US-27, US-64, US-72, US-127, US-231, US-431.
— A portion of Middle Tennessee, including north-central, northeastern and south-central Tennessee: Dense Fog Advisories continue until 10 AM CDT, with visibility of one-quarter mile or less. Routes potentially affected: I-24, I-40, I-65, US-31E, US-64, US-70, US-79, US-127, US-412.
Weather Impacts East:
— East-central Indiana, portions of southeastern Indiana and a small portion of west-central Indiana; portions of southwestern and west-central Ohio; and portions of north-central and northeastern Kentucky: Dense Fog Advisories continue through 9 to 11 AM EDT. Visibility is below 1 mile across the broader Indiana area and falls to one-quarter mile or less across east-central and southeastern Indiana, southwestern and west-central Ohio, and northern Kentucky. Routes potentially affected: I-65, I-69, I-70, I-71, I-74, I-75.
–– A small portion of southwestern Indiana: Observed patchy dense fog will produce rapid visibility changes, with readings near one-quarter mile at times through midmorning. Routes potentially affected: I-64.
— A portion of eastern Kentucky and a small portion of south-central Kentucky: A Dense Fog Advisory covers small portions of northeastern, south-central and southeastern Kentucky until 11 AM EDT, with visibility of one-quarter mile or less. Elsewhere in eastern Kentucky, locally dense fog should dissipate by about 10 AM. Routes potentially affected: I-64, I-75, US-25E, US-27, US-60, US-68.
— Central Kentucky and a small portion of western Kentucky: A Dense Fog Advisory continues through 111 AM EDT, with visibility of one-quarter mile or less. Routes potentially affected: I-64, I-65, I-71, I-75, US-27, US-31E, US-60, US-68.
— Southeastern Tennessee and portions of northwestern and north-central Georgia: Observed fog continues this morning, especially in sheltered valleys and lower elevations. Visibility may fall below one-quarter mile in southeastern Tennessee and parts of Georgia before improving after 10 AM. Routes potentially affected: I-24, I-40, I-59, I-75, US-27, US-64, US-70, US-76, US-127.
— A portion of Upstate New York: A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place Tuesday afternoon, with a conditional threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two. Routes potentially affected: I-81, I-86, I-88, I-90, I-99, US-11, US-20, NY-12.
— Portions of central and southern New Jersey and much of Delaware: Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT. Up to one-half foot of inundation is expected near shorelines and tidal waterways, flooding vulnerable coastal, bayside and tidal roads with some closures possible.
— A small portion of western North Carolina along the French Broad River: A Flood Warning and Flood Advisory continue along the French Broad River after 4 to 6 inches of storm-total rain. Minor flooding near Blantyre should continue today, while flooding farther upstream near Fletcher lasts into Tuesday morning and includes farmland inundation and water over a local road. Routes potentially affected: I-26, US-64, US-74.
— A small portion of Central South Carolina along the Congaree River: A Flood Advisory continues through Thursday afternoon. The river is forecast to crest near 14.8 feet Tuesday afternoon, flooding riverwalks and low-lying roads downstream from Columbia. Routes potentially affected: US-1, US-76.
— A small portion of west-central Florida along Cypress Creek: A Flood Warning is in effect from late tonight through Tuesday night. Minor flooding is forecast as Cypress Creek rises to near its 8-foot flood stage early Tuesday, flooding the recreation area near the state road. Routes potentially affected: I-75.
— A small portion of northeastern Florida in the St. Johns River Basin: A Coastal Flood Advisory continues until 4 PM EDT, with minor flooding of lots, parks and roads and isolated road closures.
Tropical Weather Outlook for the next 7 days:
— Eastern Pacific west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico: Hurricane Simon is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, moving northwest at 5 mph. Simon should approach western Mexico and move inland around midweek, bringing life-threatening flooding, mudslides, destructive coastal waves and dangerous surf.
Extended Hazard Outlook
Outlook Wednesday, October 14th through Sunday, October 18th:
— Wednesday, October 14 through Thursday, October 15: Northern Plains: Strong winds may create difficult driving conditions across most of North Dakota and South Dakota, much of northwestern Nebraska, and small portions of eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, and northwestern Minnesota. Major highways potentially affected include I-29, I-90, I-94.
— Wednesday, October 14 through Friday, October 16: Central and Southern Plains: Heavy rain may create localized flooding and difficult travel conditions across most of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, much of Missouri, and portions of southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Arkansas. Major highways potentially affected include I-10, I-20, I-29, I-30, I-35, I-40, I-70.
— Friday, October 16: Northern High Plains: Frost or freeze conditions may create challenges for RVers across much of South Dakota, portions of eastern Wyoming and northwestern Nebraska, and small portions of southeastern Montana and northeastern Colorado. Major highways potentially affected include I-25, I-80, I-90.
— Friday, October 16 through Saturday, October 17: Southwest: Strong winds may create difficult driving conditions across much of Arizona and New Mexico, portions of western Texas, and small portions of southeastern California. Exposed terrain and passes, including Glorieta Pass, may be particularly affected. Major highways potentially affected include I-8, I-10, I-25, I-40.
— Friday, October 16 through Saturday, October 17: Great Lakes and Upper Midwest: Strong winds may create difficult driving conditions across most of Michigan, portions of northeastern Minnesota, eastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana, northern Ohio, and western New York, and small portions of northeastern Illinois and northwestern Pennsylvania. Major highways potentially affected include I-35, I-55, I-65, I-71, I-75, I-76, I-79, I-80, I-81, I-90, I-94.
— Saturday, October 17: Central Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest: Widespread frost or freeze conditions may create challenges for RV travelers across much of Colorado, the central and northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Most of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin are included, along with much of Kansas, Minnesota, northern Illinois, and Michigan. Major highways potentially affected include I-25, I-29, I-35, I-55, I-65, I-70, I-74, I-75, I-76, I-80, I-90, I-94.
— Sunday, October 18: Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast: Widespread frost or freeze conditions may create challenges for RV travelers across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, extending into the Tennessee Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. Most of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and several northeastern states are included. Major highways potentially affected include I-29, I-35, I-40, I-55, I-64, I-65, I-70, I-71, I-74, I-75, I-76, I-79, I-80, I-81, I-84, I-85, I-87, I-90, I-91, I-94, I-95.
Extended Outlook Monday, October 19th through Sunday, October 25th:
— Monday, October 19: Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast: Much below normal temperatures may develop across much of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England, creating cold-weather travel concerns. Areas affected include much of Virginia, most of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York, and substantial portions of New England. Major highways potentially affected include I-40, I-64, I-70, I-76, I-79, I-80, I-81, I-84, I-87, I-90, I-91, I-95.
— Monday, October 19 through Friday, October 23: Western and Central Gulf Coast: Heavy precipitation may develop across portions of southeastern Texas, most of Louisiana, and small portions of southern Mississippi, potentially creating localized flooding and difficult travel conditions. Major highways potentially affected include I-10, I-55.
Confidence in the Extended Outlook:
Confidence is generally above average, with good agreement among forecast models on the large-scale weather pattern. Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of weather systems over the Southwest and the timing of disturbances crossing the country. Confidence in precipitation details decreases later in the outlook, although agreement on the overall atmospheric pattern remains relatively good.
Looking for real-time road conditions? Here’s a link, courtesy of the Federal Highway Administration, to all the individual State 511 websites.
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Weather Maps and National Outlooks
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