Travel & RV Weather Extended Outlook through Sunday 9 April

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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Big Picture for the week and upcoming weekend:

• Big Changes in Store! We are finally seeing the beginnings of a major weather pattern change for the western U.S.
• But first one more major winter-like storm at the beginning of this period.
• Snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions for the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest.
• High winds over New Mexico and western Texas spread across much of the Plains and into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
• Another potentially dangerous severe weather period Tuesday and Tuesday night from Texas to Illinois.
• Once this storm exits late Wednesday, a quieter regime takes over.
• Although persistent heavy rains during the middle and latter parts of the week across eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley may create some flooding issues.
• By next Sunday parts of the southwest desert may be approaching 100 deg F.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

• Warmer than average east of I-55 (New Orleans – Chicago). West warms up quickly starting this coming weekend.
• Wetter than average over the Northern Plains (snow!).
• Wet also for the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana and the Southeast.
• The Pacific Northwest is also wetter than normal.
• Drier than average for California, the Southwest, Central Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast.

Highlights by day:

1. Tuesday:
   • Storm intensifies as it moves across the Central Plains to the western Great Lakes.
   • Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes likely from Texas to Illinois.
   • Heavy snow and near-blizzard conditions across Wyoming and the Northern Plains.
   • High winds spread from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle, then through western Kansas and western Oklahoma.
   • Unsettled across the Pacific Northwest.
2. Wednesday:
   • Heavy snow for the Upper Midwest.
   • Chance of severe thunderstorms over Ohio and the eastern Great Lakes.
   • Strong winds across the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin.
   • The start of a 3-day period of heavy rains for Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.
   • Rain for much of the Midwest and Northeast; maybe some mixed precipitation for northern New England.
3. Thursday:
   • Rain from a frontal system extends from Maine to Texas.
   • Day two of heavy rain for eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and Mississippi.
   • Rain for the Pacific Northwest.
   • Strong winds over Wisconsin and Michigan.
4. Friday:
   • More heavy rains for eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas and Mississippi.
   • Some rain for the Pacific Northwest and Inter-mountain West.
   • Strong winds over southeast Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain Front in Montana.
5. Saturday:
   • Showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas to Texas.
   • Unsettled over the Pacific Northwest and Inter-mountain West.
   • Strong winds over the Rocky Mountain Front.
6. Sunday:
   • Showers for Texas and Washington .
   • Temperatures reaching the upper 90’s for the desert Southwest.

Outlook into mid-April and beyond (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Warm and dry in the West. The Southwest Deserts will really heat up.
• Much of the country will be drier than average.
• South Texas and Florida will be the exceptions as they will likely be wetter than average.