- Temperatures closer to normal west of I-5 by Sunday; but otherwise persistent heat remains in much of the West, Northwest, Great Basin, Inter-Mountain West and Northern Rockies.
- Cold Front moves across the Central U.S. on Friday and the Atlantic and Gulf States by early weekend; steady rain for New Jersey and New England.
- Minimal severe weather risk after Friday; most severe weather suppressed to Gulf Coast States, southern Texas and Florida.
Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. RVWeather.com will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.
Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.
From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming
Big Picture for the end of this week, next weekend, and early next week:
- Ridging over the West Coast weakens and moves east after Sunday.
- Temperatures closer to normal west of I-5 by Sunday; but otherwise persistent heat remains in much of the West, Northwest, Great Basin, Inter-Mountain West and Northern Rockies.
- Cold Front moves across the Central U.S. on Friday and the Atlantic and Gulf States by early weekend; steady rain for New Jersey and New England.
- Minimal severe weather risk after Friday; most severe weather suppressed to Gulf Coast States, southern Texas and Florida.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
- Warmer than normal for the West, the Great Basin, Inter-mountain West, Northern Rockies and western High Plains.
- Warmer than normal for southern Florida.
- Cooler than normal from New Mexico to New York, Texas, the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic States.
- Wetter than normal over southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and the Southeast.
- Drier than normal for central and northern California, Oregon, the Inter-mountain West, Northern Rockies, Central U.S., and the Midwest.
- Drier than normal for Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and western New England.
Highlights by day (18 – 23 May):
- Thursday:
- Heavy rain over western Oklahoma.
- A few severe thunderstorms over portions of the Southern Plains.
- Friday:
- Cold front stretches from Michigan to Texas.
- Heavy rain for central and eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas.
- Severe thunderstorms probable over Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas.
- Saturday:
- Cold front from western New York to the lower Mississippi Valley.
- Rain, some heavy, for New Jersey, Long Island and New England.
- Sunday:
- Showers and thunderstorms for western Washington, the Great Basin, Rockies, western and southern Texas.
- Monday:
- Showers and thunderstorms for the Great Basin, Rockies, Four-Corners region and west Texas.
- Tuesday:
- Showers and thunderstorms for the Great Basin, Rockies, west Texas.
- Showers and thunderstorms for Florida and the Southeast.
More Highlights (from the National Weather Service):
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Fri, May 19. - Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat, May 20.
- Severe weather across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Fri, May
19. - Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern
Great Basin. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the
Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
Plains. - Flooding likely across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern
Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Pacific
Northwest, and the Southwest. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the
Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Fri-Mon, May 19-May 22. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies,
Sat-Mon, May 20-May 22. - Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook
Outlook for the latter part of May and into early June (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):
- By the end of May:
- Warmer than normal north of I-70.
- Cooler than normal over the California Coast, Texas and the Southeast.
- Drier than normal east of I-35, except for the Southeast and Florida.
- Wetter than normal over eastern Colorado and New Mexico, western Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle.
- Through the first week of June:
- Warmer than normal over the Pacific Northwest, Inter-mountain West, northern Rockies, Northern Plains and New England.
- Cooler than normal for Southern California, the Southwest, Southern Plains, and the Southeast.
- Drier than normal for the Central U.S. and Northeast.
- Wetter than normal for eastern Colorado and New Mexico, and the Texas Panhandle.
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