Travel and RV Weather Extended Outlook through Tuesday 16 May

• No big storms, but lots of moisture and instability will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of the Western Plains and Central U.S.
• Texas in particular will see a lot of rain.
• Minimal severe weather threat Friday and through the weekend.

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

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Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. RVWeather.com will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

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Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for the end of this week, the weekend, and early next week:

• No big storms, but lots of moisture and instability will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of the Western Plains and Central U.S.
• Texas in particular will see a lot of rain.
• Severe thunderstorms over the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday.
• Minimal severe weather threat Friday and through the weekend.
• Snow in the Colorado Rockies Thursday into early Friday: Heads up I-70.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

• Cooler than normal over most of Texas and New Mexico.
• Cooler than normal over the central and southern Rockies.
• Warmer than normal most everywhere else in the country.
• Especially wet over Texas and New Mexico.
• Wetter than normal over eastern Montana, central and eastern Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
• Wetter than normal as well over much of Arizona and Louisiana.
• Drier than normal over California, the Pacific Northwest and the Inter-Mountain West.
• Drier than normal over the Great Lakes states and the Northeast.

Highlights by day (11 – 16 May):

1. Thursday:
   • Snow for the Colorado Rockies.
   • Heavy rain for Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas, central and western Kansas and northern Colorado.
   • Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central and Southern Plains.
2. Friday:
   • Strong winds for eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado.
   • Heavy rain for western and central Texas.
   • Heavy rain for eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming and the Dakotas.
3. Saturday:
   • Heavy rain for central and western Texas, eastern New Mexico, and Oklahoma.
4. Sunday:
   • Heavy rain for central Texas and Oklahoma.
5. Monday:
   • Showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast and Texas.
   • Scattered showers over the Rockies.
6. Tuesday
   • Showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast and Texas.
   • Scattered showers over the Rockies.

More Highlights (from the National Weather Service):

• Heavy rain across portions of the Northern Plains, Fri, May 12.
• Heavy rain across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Fri-Sun, May 12-May 14.
• Flooding possible across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the
  Northern Plains.
• Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Middle
  Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin.
• Flooding likely across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern
  Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, the Great Lakes, and the Southwest.
• High winds across portions of the Central and Northern High Plains, Fri, May 12.
• Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest and California, Sat-Mon,
  May 13-May 15.
• Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook

Outlook for the latter part of May and into early June (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Through the third week of May:
  • Pattern flip flops: Drier than normal over the western Plains and much of the Central US
  • Remains dry over the Great Lakes region and the Northeast.
  • Warm in the west. Cool from Texas and New Mexico northeastward to the Great Lakes.
• By the end of May:
  • Drier than normal over the Central US. Wetter than normal over the Mid-Atlantic region.
  • Warm over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
  • Cooler than normal over Texas and east of I-35.
• Through the first week of June:
  • Drier than normal over the Central US and Northeast.
  • Cool in the West; warm in the Northern and Central Plains; cool across Texas, the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic region.