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• Heavy, flooding rains for south Texas.
• Long-duration heat dome across the Pacific Northwest.
  • 10-20 deg F above normal into the following weekend (20-21 May).
  • 30 deg F or more above normal near the Washington and Oregon coasts on Sunday.
• Severe weather will be local and limited; no widespread or organized severe weather outbreak this period.

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Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

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Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. RVWeather.com will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

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Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for this weekend and the first part of next week:

• Heavy rains across the Southwest and Texas, and across south Texas in Particular.
• Early season heat wave for the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures on Sunday along the coast may be 30 or more degrees (F) above normal. Heat will persist into the latter part of May.
• Severe thunderstorms this period will be local and limited; no widespread, organized outbreak of severe weather.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

• Warmer than normal over the West, the Northern Plains, Upper-Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic region and coastal New England.
• Cooler than normal across New Mexico, central and western Texas, eastern Colorado, upstate New York and interior New England.
• Wetter than normal for Arizona, New Mexico, western and southern Texas and the Northern Plains.
• Drier than normal for central and northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Inter-Mountain West, and the Northeast.

Highlights by day (13 – 18 May):

1. Saturday:
   • Heavy rain for southern Texas.
   • Heavy rain for southern Minnesota.
   • Severe thunderstorms for Iowa and south Texas.
   • Windy across northern New Hampshire and interior Maine.
2. Sunday:
   • Heavy rain for southern Texas.
   • Hottest day for the Oregon and Washington coasts.
3. Monday:
   • Showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Texas / New Mexico. Florida should be dry.
   • Scattered showers over the Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
4. Tuesday
   • Windy over most of Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
5. Wednesday:
   • Showers and thunderstorms for Texas and the Southwest.
   • Showers for the Rockies and Inter-Mountain West.
6. Thursday:
   • Showers and thunderstorms for Texas and the Southwest.
   • Showers and thunderstorms for Florida.
   • Frontal system crosses the Upper Midwest with showers and isolated thunderstorms.

More Highlights (from the National Weather Service):

• Heavy rain across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Sun-Mon, May 14-May 15.
• Flooding possible across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, the
  Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains.
• Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Middle
  Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin.
• Flooding likely across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern
  Great Basin, the Central Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
• Excessive heat across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Mon, May 14-May 15.
• Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great
  Basin, and California, Sun-Wed, May 14-May 17
• Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook

Outlook for the latter part of May and into early June (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Through the third week of May:
  • Pattern flip flops: Drier than normal over the western Plains and much of the Central US
  • Remains dry over the Great Lakes region and the Northeast.
  • Warm in the west, central and northern Rockies, central and northern Plains.
  • Cool across Texas, the Southeast, Mid-South, Midwest and Pennsylvania / New York.
• By the end of May:
  • Drier than normal over the Central US. Wetter than normal over the Mid-Atlantic region.
  • Warm over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
  • Cooler than normal over Texas and east of I-35.
• Through the first week of June:
  • Drier than normal over the Central US and Northeast.
  • Cool in the West; warm in the Northern and Central Plains; cool across Texas, the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic region.