Travel and RV Weather Extended Outlook through Thursday 13 July

• Near record warmth continues for much of the Southwest, parts of Texas, and the central and southern Florida Peninsula.
• Strong and severe thunderstorms will be a daily occurrence over the central and southern High Plains and the Plains.
• Heavy rains this period for the Mid-South, Deep South, eastern Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast.

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Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

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Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. RVWeather.com will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

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Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather.

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From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for the coming weekend and next week:

• Unusually strong high pressure over the Southwest and Texas continues to produce excessive heat and near daily chances to set record high temperatures.
• Disturbances moving along the eastern edge of the high, coupled with ample moisture, will result in potentially heavy rains over the Mid- and Deep-South, the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast.
• Strong and severe thunderstorms will be a daily occurrence, forming over the High Plains and moving onto the central and southern Plains overnight.
• Tropics should remain quiet this week.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

• Warmer than average over the interior Pacific Northwest, the Southwest and Four Corners states, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and northern New England.
• Cooler than normal over the central U.S. east of the Rockies, west of I-75, and north of I-40.
• Wetter than normal for the central and southern Plains, the Mid- and Deep-South, the Mid-Atlantic States and New England.
• Drier than normal west of the Rockies, Texas, the Upper Midwest, Midwest and coastal Southeast.

Highlights by day (8 – 13 July):

1. Saturday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the central High Plains eastward to southern Missouri and Arkansas.
   • Record heat possible for western Texas, and the southern Florida Peninsula.
2. Sunday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the High Plains, moving eastward on the Plains.
   • Heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-South.
   • Record high temperatures possible in the Southwest, western Texas, and central and southern Florida.
3. Monday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the High Plains, moving eastward on the Plains.
   • Heavy rains in the Northeast and Deep South.
   • Record high temperatures possible in the Southwest, central and southern Texas, and central and southern Florida.
4. Tuesday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the High Plains, moving eastward on the Plains.
   • Heavy rains in the Deep South.
   • Record high temperatures possible in the Southwest, and central and southern Florida.
5. Wednesday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the High Plains, moving eastward on the Plains.
   • Record high temperatures possible in the Southwest and southwest Forida.
6. Thursday:
   • Severe thunderstorms over the High Plains, moving eastward on the Plains.
7. Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook

Tropical Outlook:

• No tropical storms are expected to develop in this forecast period.

Outlook through mid- and latter July (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Little change into the second half of July.