Travel and RV Weather Extended Outlook through Memorial Day, Monday 29 May

dwtitley

3 years ago

Slow moving upper air pattern leads to weather that changes little from day to day for any individual location.
Slow-moving coastal storm brings rain and wind to the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England coasts Thursday through Sunday.
For Memorial Day weekend, expect pm showers and thunderstorms daily over northeast California, the interior Northwest and Inter-Mountain West, Northern Nevada, the Rockies, and the Plains.
Daily chances of severe thunderstorms. Most will be east of the southern Rockies or over the Central and Southern High Plains. Greatest risk for severe weather will be on Saturday.

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. RVWeather.com will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for this weekend, and the first part of next week:

Slow moving upper air pattern leads to weather that changes little from day to day for any individual location.
Daily chances of severe thunderstorms. Most will be east of the southern Rockies or over the Central and Southern High Plains. Greatest risk for severe weather will be on Saturday.
For Memorial Day weekend, expect pm showers and thunderstorms daily over northeast California, the interior Northwest and Inter-Mountain West, Northern Nevada, the Rockies, and the Plains.
Slow-moving coastal storm brings rain and wind to the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England coasts Thursday through Sunday.
Southern California and the Southwest may be in for a prolonged period of below normal temperatures.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

Warmer than normal west of the Mississippi River and north of I-80.
Cooler than normal over southern California, the California coast, the Southern Plains and Texas, and most of the country east of the Mississippi River.
Wetter than average over the Great Basin, western Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Wetter than average over central and southern Georgia and northern Florida.
Drier than average over the Upper Midwest; the Midwest; Middle Atlantic States; Pennsylvania, New York and western New England; and the Mississippi Valley.
Drier than average over much of central and northern California, most of Oregon and Washington, and most of Arizona and New Mexico.

Highlights by day (23-29 May):

Tuesday:
- Heavy rain over central and southern Georgia.
Wednesday:
- Cold front with showers and thunderstorms moves through New York and New England
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for the Rockies, western and southern Plains.
Thursday:
- Strong winds for the Carolina coast.
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for the Rockies and Plains.
Friday:
- Strong winds for the Southeast coast.
- Rain for the Southeast coast; may be heavy over Cape Hatteras.
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for northeast California, interior Oregon, northern Nevada, the Rockies and Plains.
Saturday:
- Strong winds for the DELMARVA Coast.
- Rain from the Mid-Atlantic region north to Cape Cod.
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for northeast California, interior Oregon, northern Nevada, the Rockies and Plains.
Sunday:
- Coastal low pressure near the DELMARVA Peninsula.
- Rain for New Jersey and Long Island, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia.
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for northeast California, interior Oregon, northern Nevada, the Rockies and Plains.
Monday:
- Slow clearing along the Atlantic Coast.
- P.M. showers and thunderstorms for northeast California, interior Oregon, northern Nevada, the Rockies and Plains.
Click here for the latest National Weather Service 3-7 Day outlook

Outlook for the first half of June (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

By early June:
- Warmer than average over the Interior Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and northern New England.
- Cooler than average over central and southern California, the Southwest, Texas and the Southern Plains.
- Drier than average for the eastern half of the U.S.
Through mid-June:
- Warmer than average for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho and Montana.
- Warmer than average for the central and lower Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic region, and the Northeast.
- Cooler than average or central and southern California, the Southwest, the Four Corners region, and the western High Plains.