Tropical Depression Fred: Tropical update for Florida and the Southeast: a.m. Saturday 14 August 2021

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Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for the Lower FL Keys

Tropical Storm Watches discontinued for the southwest FL coast from Tampa Bay southward

This morning, a very disorganized Tropical Depression Fred is located about 90 miles south of Key West FL, moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. It’s possible there is no longer a defined center to the storm.

Fred is likely still to turn north and regain strength in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the system is now expected to be further to the west. As a result, the west coast of the FL Peninsula will not see tropical storm conditions this weekend. The weather will still be wet (1-3 inches of rain) and squally; hazards will be restricted to localized flash flooding.

By Monday, Fred should make its presence felt along much of the FL Panhandle coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely with strong winds, heavy rain and a modest storm surge. I would expect the Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for a portion of the Panhandle sometime later today.

By early next week, Fred’s heavy rains will likely spread northward into the Southeast, Southern and Central Appalachians, and the Piedmont region.

If I was RV’ing or planning to RV in southern FL, along the west coast of FL or eastern FL Panhandle, I would be prepared for rain and gusty winds. If I was planning to camp along the FL Panhandle early next week I would have a “Plan ‘B'” ready to go. As always, please follow the advice and directions of your local Emergency Managers.

Please pay attention to the tropical forecasts, either from the National Hurricane Center, local TV weather forecasters, or reputable, established weather websites.

I will write about Tropical Storm Grace this evening.

I will update the Fred Advisory on Sunday 15 August or sooner, if there is significant change.

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