Travel & RV Weather Forecast Monday 26 September (includes Hurricane Ian update)

** Heads Up ** RVers in or traveling to the Florida Gulf Coast need to TAKE ACTION regarding Hurricane Ian, now in the Caribbean Sea and strengthening rapidly. There will be significant impacts to infrastructure on parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Big Bend region to Tampa Bay and Ft Myers. This storm will be a multi-day event. See details under the ‘Eastern’ heading of this forecast.

Excessive heat through the middle of this week for parts of Southern California.
Apart from Hurricane Ian, the rest of the nation has quiet early fall weather.

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Pacific:

— Parts of southern CA: Excessive Heat Warnings through Wednesday. High temperatures 100-110 deg F. Hottest temperatures in the interior deserts, coolest near the coast. I-5, I-8, I-10, I-15, US-101 impacted.

Mountain:

— No significant weather impacts to RV travel today or Tuesday.

Central:

— No significant weather impacts to RV travel today or Tuesday.

Eastern:

— Hurricane Ian is southeast of the western tip of Cuba this morning, moving to the northwest and strengthening rapidly. Ian will likely became a major (Category 3) hurricane by tonight. Ian should enter the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and be to the north and west of Key West by Tuesday night. It is likely the hurricane will slow down once it is west of the Florida Peninsula, making this a multi-day weather event.

As of this morning, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Lower Keys including Key West.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Ft Myers to north of Tampa Bay, with a Tropical Storm Watch south of Ft Myers.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Keys to Tampa Bay.

Current forecasts for storm surge range from 2-4 feet through the Keys, 4-7 feet in the vicinity of Ft Myers, and 5-8 feet in and around Tampa Bay.  Fresh water flooding from many inches of rainfall will compound the disaster.  Ensure you are out of locations that flood with heavy rain.
 
It is important not to focus on the exact track of the storm or the latest prediction of a specific point of landfall.  Ian will be a major hurricane that parallels and moves slowly along the western coast of the Florida Peninsula from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.  The impacts of storm surge and fresh water flooding will likely be more significant than destruction from the strong winds.

[Monday afternoon update]:  The Monroe County office of Emergency Management, "highly urges" RV's to move out of the tropical storm warning area.  If you cannot move, plan to seek shelter in a safe structure.If you are heading to the Keys, it would be wise to continue to check for the latest official information.  

Expect Tropical Storm force winds to impact the coast from south to north starting Tuesday evening and reaching the Panhandle by Thursday.  The greatest risk for sustained hurricane force winds is from Cedar Key southward to Tampa Bay.  Destructive winds, at a force you would not want to experience in your RV, may be experiences from the Big Bend region southward to Ft Myers.

Expect infrastructure impacted by the hurricane, especially along the immediate coast, to be disrupted for days and weeks.  If you travel to the west coast of Florida this week, you will likely be required to evacuate on short notice.  If you are already RVing on the coast, have your rig and evacuation plan ready to go, and follow the directions of your local emergency management officials.

Where to evacuate?  Most important, get away from the immediate coast or any estuaries that are impacted by storm surge.  Water kills in hurricanes.  Fresh water flooding will also be significant with Ian.  If you are in Tampa or south, think about evacuating to the Ft. Lauderdale / Miami area.  It’s counter-intuitive to go TO Miami to avoid a hurricane(!) … but the distance is shorter than driving up the Peninsula with a million of your new found friends.  Miami may have some squally weather but nothing that would imperil your safety.  Make sure you are not in a low-lying area or location that floods easily, as southeast Florida could still get several inches of rain from Ian.  Other options, if you choose to go north and west, almost anywhere in Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana, ideally along or west of I-65 would be good options.  Those states should see little, if any impact from Ian.