Extended outlooks are more general in nature than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
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Here is the latest short term weather forecast.
- Active weather returns Friday through Tuesday with two separate storm systems moving across the Central Plains and into New England.
- Threat of severe weather over Iowa and Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
- Warm weather gets squeezed to the East this weekend and Monday; most of the country is at or below normal temperatures next week.
- The western High Plains, Northern Rockies and Ohio Valley all see wetter than normal conditions; drier than average for California (despite Friday’s rain), the desert Southwest and Florida.
Outlook for Friday – Sunday 4-6 March:
— On Friday, rain and snow spread through CA and into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies.
— Low pressure develops east of the CO Rockies.
— On Saturday, the low pressure tracks northeastward across the Central Plains. Snow continues in the Rockies and develops over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
— Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday and Saturday night over IA and northern MO.
— The low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes on Sunday and into Ontario. Rain showers for the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
— A second low pressure develops over eastern KS Sunday afternoon, bringing the threat of severe weather to AR Sunday and Sunday night.
— Expect heavy rain and thunderstorms over MO and IL Sunday night.
Outlook for Monday – Wednesday 7-9 March:
— Expect heavy rain through the Ohio Valley, PA, southern NY and southern New England, and some snow for the Midwest.
— On Tuesday, snow in New England. Snow also develops Tuesday night over the western High Plains as another cold surge moves out of Canada and into the northern tier of the U.S.
— Wednesday will see more snow, heavy at times for MT and the Dakotas. Expect rain to develop late Wednesday along the central Gulf Coast.
Here are the temperature, precipitation and snowfall outlooks for Friday – Wednesday 4-9 March
Severe weather risk Saturday and Saturday night 5 March 
Severe weather risk Sunday and Sunday night 6 March 
Wind gusts late Saturday night 5 March 
Expected snowfall accumulations through Wednesday 9 March 
Expected total precipitation accumulations through Wednesday 9 March 
Expected precipitation through Wednesday 9 March, relative to normal.
Brown and red is drier than normal; green and blue is wetter than normal.
Five day temperature averages, relative to normal. (Colder than normal in the West; warmer than normal in the East.)
Saturday – Wednesday, 5-9 March.
Temperature and precipitation outlooks for Tuesday – Saturday 8-12 March
Temperature and precipitation outlooks for Thursday – Wednesday 10-16 March
