Extended outlooks are more general in nature than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
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Here is the latest short term weather forecast.
- Active weather pattern continues, especially for the Central, Mid-West, and Northeast U.S.
- Main storm track will run from Texas to the eastern Great Lakes and then into Canada.
- Small changes in the timing and synchronization of these storms will make big differences in the strength of next week’s storms.
- Some precipitation for the Rockies and West Coast; except for the central Rockies, precipitation amounts will be modest.
- Turning colder over the West the last week of February, but still overall drier than average – remaining dry into March.
Outlook for Friday – Sunday 18-20 February:
— On Friday, storm exits the East Coast. Snow in the Northeast; Rain in the Mid-Atlantic states and Southeast.
— A clipper system moves through the Northern Plains to Lake Superior. Rain and snow for the Upper Midwest.
— Saturday sees the clipper system spread rain and snow through the Northeast; windy in the afternoon over the Northeast.
— A Pacific storm moves onshore. Rain and snow for WA and OR; snow develops over the Northern Rockies.
— On Sunday, snow in the Pacific Northwest, inter-mountain West, northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Outlook for Monday – Wednesday 21-23 February:
— Snow continues on Monday for the inter-mountain West and northern Rockies, and spreads into the central Rockies and western High Plains.
— Also on Monday, rain breaks out over Texas and the central Gulf Coast.
— Tuesday will likely see the northern and southern weather systems merge. Expect heavy Rain from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and into the northeast; snow over the Central Plains, IA, MN and WI; freezing rain along I-80 in IL, IN and OH, then into northern New England; and possible severe weather across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
— A separate Pacific storm moves into OR, northern CA and the Great Basin bringing rain and higher elevation snows, then working its way southward.
— On Wednesday, the eastern storm pushing into the Atlantic Ocean by evening.
— Expect some snow over the CA Sierra Nevada range; also more snow for the central Rockies.
— The next storm system in the series starts to organize over TX, producing cold rain over TX, possibly mixed with sleet near the OK border.
Here are the temperature, precipitation and snowfall outlooks for Friday – Wednesday 18-23 February
Average temperature difference, relative to normal, Saturday – Wednesday 19-23 February 
Percentage of precipitation, relative to normal, through Wednesday 16 February. Red and brown is drier than normal; green and blue is wetter than normal.
Wetter than normal over the Central Gulf Coast, Midwest, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Dry for both Florida and California.
Snowfall amounts through Wednesday 23 February.
The snow across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri is from the February 16th storm.
Wind gusts Saturday afternoon 18 February
Temperature and precipitation outlooks for Tuesday – Saturday 22 – 26 February
Temperature and precipitation outlooks for Thursday – Wednesday 24 February – 2 March
