Travel & RV Weather Extended Outlook through Wednesday 16 February

Extended outlooks are more general in nature than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

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Here is the latest short term weather forecast.

Very warm for California through Sunday.
Some light rain and snow events for the Mid-West, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Sunday.
Weather action shifts to the West Coast starting Sunday. By early next week much of the west and southwest will see rain, snow and/or high winds.
Major storm develops over the Southern Plains late Wednesday.

Outlook for Friday – Sunday 11-13 February:

— CA will see high temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s Friday through Sunday. Many temperature records will likely be broken.

— On Friday, low pressure over the Great Lakes produces mostly light rain in the Ohio Valley and PA, and snow showers over WI and MI.

— Saturday will see light rain in the Northeast, with some lake effect snow developing in the normal locations by late afternoon.

— On Sunday, a rain – snow – sleet mix develops over VA and NC Saturday night, then moves along the coast to MA by Sunday afternoon. Accumulations will be generally light. Sunday will also see light snow over MN and WI.

Outlook for Monday – Wednesday 14-16 February:

— Monday: Rain moves onto the WA and OR coast. Rain and higher elevation snows spread into all of OR and the Inter-Mountain West by Monday evening.

— On Tuesday, light rain and snow moves through CA and into the Great Basin. AZ will see strong to high winds Tuesday afternoon.

— Wednesday: Snow breaks out across the Northern Rockies, IT and UT. Rain and snow fall across AZ.

— The storm develops over the Southern Plains, and by Wednesday evening there will be moderate to heavy snow in the Central and Southern Rockies. Rain develops over TX, OK, KS, NE and IA. Strong winds over TX.

— Expect a major storm with snow, rain, and possible severe weather for the Central U.S. Wednesday night through Friday 16-18 February.

Here are the temperature, precipitation and snowfall outlooks for Friday – Wednesday 11-16 February

Average temperature difference, relative to normal, Saturday – Wednesday 12-16 February
Percentage of precipitation, relative to normal, through Wednesday 16 February. Red and brown is drier than normal; green and blue is wetter than normal.
The west, south, and east are drier than normal.
Snowfall amounts through Wednesday 16 February (not much).