Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
Big Picture for the end of this week and into early next week:
- Active, but not crazy, weather across the country this period.
- Weak disturbance moves onshore along the Louisiana coast Thursday and brings heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms to the Southeast.
- Storm system coming out of the Rockies develops Thursday night over the Southern Plains, and moves to the western Great Lakes by Sunday.
- This system will have cold rain mixed with snow to its north and showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
- A wet snowstorm possible for Wisconsin this coming Sunday and Monday.
- Maybe some severe weather over the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday, respectively.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
- Lots of temperature variability across much of the US this period.
- We start off with cooler than average temperatures in the West and Southeast. Very warm across the Central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
- By early next week it will be cooler than normal from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Warmer than average across the Southwest, Rockies and Western Plains.
- Most of the country will be relatively dry.
- Wetter than average across the Southeast and Florida, and the Northwest.
Highlights by day (11-16 April):
- Snow for much of Montana.
- Windy over Colorado, New Mexico and the Central Plains.
- Disturbance moves inland over Louisiana, bringing rain, heavy at times, to the the Southeast.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms over the Southeast.
- Possible severe thunderstorms for the Southern Plains.
- Strong winds over New Mexico.
- Low pressure intensifies over the Plains.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms for the Mississippi Valley.
- Rain, showers and thunderstorms across the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region.
- Rain, rain showers, and thunderstorms for much of the East (except New England).
- Strong winds over Minnesota, Iowa, and northern Illinois.
- Maybe a wet snowstorm for Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula.
- Rain for the Pacific Northwest.
- Strong winds from Iowa and southern Minnesota, across Illinois and Indiana to Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky.
- Rain, wind and mountain snows for Oregon.
- Rain and high elevation snow for the Pacific Northwest.
- Rain for New England.
- Lingering showers for the remainder of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook for the latter part of April (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):
- Continued wetter than average for the Pacific Northwest.
- Dry over much of the East. However, the central Gulf Coast and Florida will likely see average or above average precipitation.
- Cool for the West and Southeast. Warmer than average for the Southern and Western Plains.
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