Travel & RV Weather Extended Outlook through Tuesday 18 April

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

Big Picture for the end of this week and into early next week:

  • Active, but not crazy, weather across the country this period.
  • Weak disturbance moves onshore along the Louisiana coast Thursday and brings heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms to the Southeast.
  • Storm system coming out of the Rockies develops Thursday night over the Southern Plains, and moves to the western Great Lakes by Sunday.
  • This system will have cold rain mixed with snow to its north and showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
  • A wet snowstorm possible for Wisconsin this coming Sunday and Monday.
  • Maybe some severe weather over the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday, respectively.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

  • Lots of temperature variability across much of the US this period.
  • We start off with cooler than average temperatures in the West and Southeast. Very warm across the Central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
  • By early next week it will be cooler than normal from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Warmer than average across the Southwest, Rockies and Western Plains.
  • Most of the country will be relatively dry.
  • Wetter than average across the Southeast and Florida, and the Northwest.

Highlights by day (11-16 April):

  1. Thursday:
    • Snow for much of Montana.
    • Windy over Colorado, New Mexico and the Central Plains.
    • Disturbance moves inland over Louisiana, bringing rain, heavy at times, to the the Southeast.
    • Isolated severe thunderstorms over the Southeast.
  2. Friday:
    • Possible severe thunderstorms for the Southern Plains.
    • Strong winds over New Mexico.
  3. Saturday:
    • Low pressure intensifies over the Plains.
    • Isolated severe thunderstorms for the Mississippi Valley.
    • Rain, showers and thunderstorms across the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region.
  4. Sunday:
    • Rain, rain showers, and thunderstorms for much of the East (except New England).
    • Strong winds over Minnesota, Iowa, and northern Illinois.
    • Maybe a wet snowstorm for Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula.
    • Rain for the Pacific Northwest.
  5. Monday:
    • Strong winds from Iowa and southern Minnesota, across Illinois and Indiana to Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky.
    • Rain, wind and mountain snows for Oregon.
  6. Tuesday:
    • Rain and high elevation snow for the Pacific Northwest.
    • Rain for New England.
    • Lingering showers for the remainder of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook for the latter part of April (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

  • Continued wetter than average for the Pacific Northwest.
  • Dry over much of the East. However, the central Gulf Coast and Florida will likely see average or above average precipitation.
  • Cool for the West and Southeast. Warmer than average for the Southern and Western Plains.
Total snowfall accumulation through Tuesday 18 April
Total precipitation amounts through Tuesday 18 April
Expected precipitation as a percentage of normal through Tuesday 18 April
Averaged temperature departure from normal through Tuesday 18 April

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