Travel & RV Weather Extended Outlook through Tuesday 14 March

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

Big Picture through the week and into next weekend:

  • No end yet to the parade of West Coast storms. Big storms coming into central and northern California and Oregon on Friday and again on Tuesday.
    • Temperatures will be considerably warmer than the past couple of months, so more rain, higher elevation snow levels. The soil is already saturated and streams are full.
    • Significant flooding likely, starting Thursday night and continuing through the weekend.
  • Not much threat of severe weather. Maybe some marginally severe thunderstorms over Oklahoma late Saturday.
  • Windy over much of the west on Friday.
  • Best chance since last December for a Nor’easter-type storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. If the storm forms, it will be early next week. FAR from a lock that this system develops, let alone determining who gets rain and who gets snow.
  • Colder than normal this period over the Northern Plains, through the Midwest and to the Mid-Atlantic. Also cooler than average over the Northeast.
  • Warmer than average initially over the Gulf Coast, then over the Rockies by early next week.
  • Much wetter than normal: central and northern California, southern Oregon and the Great Basin. Wetter than normal over the Inter-mountain West, the Northern Plains, Mid-South and Southeast. And Florida sees some rain this period.
  • It will be drier than normal over the Midwest, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, Central Plains, Southwest and much of Texas.

Outlook for the 2nd half of March (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

  • Generally below normal temperatures for most of the country.
    • If this comes to pass, it should dampen (although not eliminate) some of the typical March severe weather.
  • The West Coast dries out, especially the last week of the month.

Details (courtesy of the National Weather Service):

  • Heavy precipitation across portions of California, into western Nevada and southwestern
    Washington, Fri-Sat, Mar 10-Mar 11 and Mon-Tue, Mar 13-Mar 14.
  • Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Mon, Mar 13.
  • Heavy precipitation across portions of upstate/western New York, and along the central
    Appalachians, Fri-Sat, Mar 10-Mar 11.
  • Heavy precipitation across portions of the central to southern Appalachians, Sun, Mar 12.
  • Heavy snow across portions of the northern Rockies, Fri, Mar 10.
  • Heavy snow across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and into the Northern Plains, Sat, Mar
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sun-Mon, Mar 12-Mar 13.
  • Flooding possible across portions of the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the
    southern Plains.
  • Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.
  • Flooding likely across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains.
  • Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern Plains, Fri, Mar 10 and Mon, Mar 13.

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