High pressure in the West and low pressure in the East sets the conditions for a strong, late-season nor’easter this Sunday and Monday, bringing strong winds and cold rain to much of the East.
Severe weather threat fades after Sunday with the cool, stable air in place over the central and eastern U.S.
Chance for some California rains at the end of the period, thanks to a meandering offshore disturbance. Low confidence here as these type of systems have low predictability.
Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
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From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming
Big Picture for the weekend and next week:
- High pressure in the West and low pressure in the East sets the conditions for a strong, late-season nor’easter this Sunday and Monday, bringing strong winds and cold rain to much of the East.
- Dying, large low pressure system north of the Great Lakes keeps the East cool and unsettled for much of next week. Even some lake effect snows for northern Wisconsin.
- Chance for some California rains at the end of the period, thanks to a meandering offshore disturbance. Low confidence here as these type of systems have low predictability.
- Severe weather threat fades after Sunday with the cool, stable air in place over the central and eastern U.S.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
- Cooler than average over most of California.
- Cooler than average in the eastern half of the U.S., east of I-35.
- Warmer than average in the Rockies and Western Plains.
- Wetter than normal in the East, roughly along and east of I-65.
- Wetter than normal over Florida.
- Possibly wetter than normal over the central California coast.
- Drier than normal over much of the West, the Rockies and the Plains.
Highlights by day (29 April – 4 May):
- Isolated severe thunderstorms for the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast.
- Heavy rain over northern Florida.
- Rain for the Northeast, Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest.
- Some snow for northern Wisconsin.
- Strong winds for South Dakota and Nebraska.
- Possible severe thunderstorms over the Southeast in the morning.
- Strong winds for the Carolina Coast.
- Moderate to heavy rains along the Eastern Seaboard.
- Some snow for northern Wisconsin.
- Heavy, cold rain and strong winds for New England.
- Snow for northern Wisconsin.
- Rain showers and breezy over the Northeast and Midwest.
- Possible rain showers for northern California and some snow for the high terrain of the Sierra Nevada.
- Lingering rain showers and breezy in the Northeast.
- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Rockies.
- Still some rain showers for the Northeast.
- Strong winds over the Great Basin.
- Perhaps rain for California and snow for the Sierra Nevada.
- Widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Rockies.
Outlook for the first half of May (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):
- Wetter than normal over the Gulf Coast.
- Possibly wetter than normal over California, the Inter-Mountain West, and the Northern Rockies.
- Dry over the Northwest and Northeast.
- Cooler than normal west of the Rockies. Cool also for the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region.
- Warmer than normal for the Northern Plains.
- For the second half of May, it looks like much of the nation’s interior will be cooler than normal.
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