RV Weather Enterprises

A quieter weather regime across the Nation.

Heavy rain for the Deep South, Southeast and Florida. Lingering snows in the higher elevations of the northern and central Rockies.

Some more severe weather outbreaks, especially for Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley – but nothing out of the ordinary.

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

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From the RV Weather Mobile Command Center in Portage Indiana:

Big Picture for the weekend, and next week:

• The pattern change I talked about on Tuesday is going to happen. That will mean an overall quieter weather regime for the nation, especially west of the Rockies.
• Still some rain in the Pacific Northwest, but the storms will be weaker and snow levels high.
• The storm track will go down the Rockies, across Texas, and then intensify in the Lower Mississippi Valley or over the Southeast.
• Periodic severe weather events, especially for central Texas, but of a ‘normal’ variety – large outbreaks with violent tornadoes appear unlikely.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

• Cooler than normal temperatures for most locations east of the Rockies.
• Slightly warmer than average for California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Inter-Mountain West.
• Slightly wetter than normal for the Pacific Northwest.
• Wet over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico.
• Wet also over east Texas, the Deep South, Southeast and Florida. Wet for eastern New York and New England.
• Dry over the western High Plains and Central Plains.

Highlights by day (22-27 April), courtesy of the National Weather Service:

Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Sun, Apr 23.

• Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
  Plains, Mon-Wed, Apr 24-Apr 26.
• Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
  Plains, Tue, Apr 25.
• Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern
  Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed, Apr 26.
• Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Sun-Mon, Apr 23-Apr 24.
• Severe weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Tue, Apr 25.
• Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper
  Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
• Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes,
  the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
• Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper
  Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
• Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley, Sun, Apr 23.
• Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern
  Plains, Sun-Tue, Apr 23-Apr 25.
• Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central
  Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the
  Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Apr 23-Apr 24.

Outlook for the last week of April into mid May (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

• Wet along the East Coast and Florida. Some more rain for the Oregon and northern California Coasts the first 1/3 of May.
• Drier than normal over much of the Central US.
• Cooler than average east of the Rockies.
• Warmer over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
• However, turning cooler than average for the West Coast after the first week of May. (This is low confidence as the models keep suggesting this to happen – but they are having an issue picking up major pattern shifts several weeks out).