Travel and RV Weather Extended Outlook through Sunday 7 May

Low pressure dominating the East slowly moves off the coast and dissipates by Thursday.

Unsettled and cooler weather returns to the West.

Severe weather chances ramp up through this period over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.

Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Starting Monday morning, 27 November, this site will be down for a major upgrade. will return no later than Wednesday 29 November — sooner if possible. When the site returns, WILMA, our NEW(!) integrated weather impacts product, will be available. The Paywall will also be implemented. RV Weather will continue to provide free access to essential, RV-relevant National Weather Service Warnings and Advisories, current weather, and weather safety information. While the main site is off-line, I will post a simple forecast to my email list and to RVWeather on Facebook.

Click here for animations of the coming week’s weather, updated daily.

From the RV Weather Summer Office in Moose Wyoming

Big Picture for the upcoming week and next weekend:

  • Low pressure dominating the East sloooooowly dissipates and eventually disappears by Thursday.
  • Unsettled and cooler weather returns to the West.
  • Severe weather chances ramp up through this week over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.
  • New snow confined to the high elevations of the California Sierra Nevada.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

  • Warmer than average over the Northwest, the Rockies and Northern Plains
  • Cooler than average over California, the Great Basin and Arizona
  • Cooler than average over much of the East, east of I-55 (New Orleans to Chicago)
  • Wetter than average in the West, west of I-15.
  • Wetter than average over the Northeast
  • Near average rainfall in the Central Plains; drier than average most everywhere else.

Highlights by day (29 April – 4 May):

  1. Tuesday:
    • Breezy over the Midwest, Mid-South and Mid-Atlantic region.
    • Low pressure gradually winds down over the east, but continues cold rain showers.
    • Low pressure offshore California sends rain showers into northern California and Oregon.
    • Some snow for the high terrain of the Sierra Nevada.
  2. Wednesday:
    • Unsettled weather in both the East and West.
    • Thunderstorms for west Texas.
  3. Thursday:
    • Still some rain showers for the Northeast.
    • Strong winds over the Four Corners States.
    • Rain showers for California, Nevada, the Central Rockies and the Plains.
    • Snow for the Sierra Nevada.
    • Some thunderstorms, possibly severe, for Texas.
  4. Friday:
    • Heavy rain for Missouri.
    • Rain showers for Nevada, the Northwest, Northern Rockies.
    • Showers and thunderstorms for the mid- and lower-Mississippi Valley. Chance of severe weather.
  5. Saturday:
    • Rain showers and thunderstorms in the South.
    • Rain showers in the northern and central Rockies and Western Plains.
  6. Sunday:
    • More showers and thunderstorms (some severe) for the South. Also showers and storms for the I-29 corridor.
    • Unsettled weather for the Pacific coast from northern California northward, and the northern Rockies.

Outlook for the middle and latter part of May (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):

  • Cooler than average temperatures for the Rockies and west — basically west of I-25.
  • Second 1/2 of May warm for parts of the West, Northern Rockies and the Plains.
  • Warmer than average for the East, north of I-20.
  • Drier than average for the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic region and Northeast.
  • Wetter than average for northern and eastern Texas.
Total snowfall accumulation through Sunday 7 May
Total precipitation amounts through Sunday 7 May
Expected precipitation amounts as a percentage of normal through Sunday 7 May
Averaged temperature departures from normal through Sunday 7 May

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