Constant stream of moisture and disturbances enter the Pacific Northwest all this week.
One big storm in the Central US on Thursday: snow, rain, winds, and severe thunderstorms.
Extended outlooks are more general in nature and higher level than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
Big Picture for the coming week and next weekend:
- Constant stream of moisture and disturbances come from the Pacific Ocean and enter the U.S. via the Pacific Northwest.
- No real break in the rain and snow until early next week.
- These storms will not bring rain to the Southwest, but they will create multiple periods of strong winds.
- Significant storm develops Thursday over the Central Plains, and moves into the Great Lakes by Friday. Rain, snow, strong winds and the likelihood of severe thunderstorms will all accompany this storm.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:
- Temperatures start off the period cold in the West and Northeast, and warm over the Plains and Southeast.
- By Friday it will be cold in the Northwest, Rockies, and Northern and Central Plains. Warm over Texas, the Southeast, East and Midwest.
- By Sunday of next week, look for warmer than average temperatures in the Southwest and Great Basin, and cooler than average east of the Rockies. This is a reversal to what we have seen most of this year to date.
Highlights by day (18-23 April):
- Wind for the Four Corners Region.
- Snow for the northern Rockies, Oregon Cascades, and northern California.
- Chance of severe thunderstorms over TX and the Central Plains.
- Lingering showers and raw for the Northeast.
- More snow for the Oregon Cascades and northern California. Snow also for the Northern Plains.
- Windy over much of Arizona, New Mexico and Montana.
- Heavy rains for Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
- Severe thunderstorms probable for the mid-Mississippi Valley, especially Arkansas.
- More snow for the Oregon Cascades and the Colorado Rockies.
- Snow also for Minnesota.
- Strong winds along I-25 from Cheyenne to Albuquerque.
- Strong winds and heavy rains for Iowa and Illinois.
- Snow for the Oregon Cascades, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
- Heavy rain likely over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
- A cold front with associated showers and thunderstorms will stretch from Cleveland to New Orleans.
- Snow for Wyoming and Colorado. Chance of snow for New Hampshire too.
- Strong wind over both central Texas and eastern West Virginia.
- Rain, showers and thunderstorms cover much of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South and eastern Texas.
- Rain and showers for much of the Northeast.
- Snow for both Colorado and Maine.
- Strong winds for Arizona and New Mexico.
- Rain for the Pacific Northwest.
- Rain and thunderstorms along the East and Gulf Coasts from Cape Hatteras to Brownsville Texas.
- Unsettled over New England.
Outlook for the last week of April into early May (a 2-4 week outlook is by definition low confidence!):
- Cooler than average East of the Rockies through the end of April.
- First part of May might return to a cool West and warm many parts east of the Rockies – but this is lower confidence than normal.
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