Extended outlooks are more general in nature than the daily short term forecasts. Beyond a week, there is often significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of specific weather events. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.
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- The first Atlantic system with a good chance of becoming “Alex” is forming in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
- This system will impact central and southern Florida, and the Florida Keys, Friday afternoon through early Sunday.
- Rain and fresh-water flooding are the primary threats, but stay attuned to future National Hurricane Center advisories for updates on the specific track, intensity, and other threats.
Summary:
— As of this evening, a tropical disturbance is developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance will likely move to the east and east-northeast over the next few days while organizing and strengthening slowly.
— If this system is named, it will become “Alex”.
— Florida will likely feel the impacts of this system starting Friday evening and especially Saturday.
— The most likely … and significant … impact of this storm will be rainfall and potential freshwater flooding. Know your surroundings and move yourself and your RV to higher ground before Saturday if you are at risk of flooding.
— While it is too soon to forecast a definite track, the system will most likely pass somewhere between central FL as a northern bound and the FL Keys as a southern bound. Strongest winds will be on the southern side of the storm, but rainfall could be widespread.
— Although this storm is approaching from the southwest / the Gulf side of FL, RV interests along the Atlantic coast should also stay aware of this storm. The storm may intensify quite quickly once it reaches the Atlantic, increasing winds and the chance of surge.
— The FL Atlantic coast may see high water levels along river outlets as far north as Jacksonville / St. Johns River, due to a combination of heavy rains being backed up by coastal winds and surge. Be alert if you are camping by any river.
— If you are in, or planning to travel to, the FL Keys, be prepared for high winds along the open, exposed bridges to Key West. State or local officials may shut those bridges down if they determine conditions are too dangerous for safe travel.
— Although damaging winds and storm surge are not probable at this time, all RV’ers in along the central and southern coasts (both Gulf and Atlantic) should stay abreast of the latest warnings and information from the National Hurricane Center.
— As always, please follow all directions from your local Emergency Management officials. Right now, wind is not the primary threat, but stay aware of your location with respect to flash flooding and river flooding.
