Extended weather outlook p.m. Thursday 13 May 2021

Extended outlooks forecast expected conditions 3 to 6, and 6 to 10 days in the future. They are more general in nature than the daily short term forecasts. At days 6-10 in particular, there can be significant uncertainty in the specifics. I will note where there is less, or greater, confidence than normal in these extended outlooks.

Outlook for Days 3-6 (Saturday 15 May – Tuesday 18 May):

— High pressure off the East Coast pumps warm moist air into the Central Plains, setting up daily chances for isolated severe thunderstorms and heavy rains. No widespread severe weather outbreak expected.

— The Northern Plains warm up starting Sunday and the heat spreads eastward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by Tuesday. The Pacific Northwest starts the weekend warmer than average but cools down to normal by early next week.

— Much of the country south of I-80 and east of the Rockies remains at or below normal temperatures.

— Wetter than normal across the Southern and Central Plains.

— Drier than normal along the West Coast, especially the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and Southeast.

— No hurricane formation expected. Starting on 1 June I will include a hurricane formation outlook.

Outlook for Days. 7-10 (Wednesday 19 May – Saturday 22 May):

— Significant uncertainty in the details. The West Coast turns cooler and likely wetter for the Pacific Northwest. Chance of another unseasonably cool shot of weather for New England and the Great Lakes by Saturday 22 May.

— Heat remains locked in over the Northern Plains.

— Strong winds possible Wednesday 19 May over Southern CA and the Great Basin.

— Not much chance in the overall precipitation pattern; the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in particular look to remain drier than normal. Continued above normal rainfall over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley.

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